P(doom), the number from 0 to 100 that indicates the probability that AI will end humanity: What would you say is yours?
In the world of technology, but more specifically in Silicon Valley, there is a term that has gained great popularity: P(doom). This concept is not just a mathematical variable, it is a way for artificial intelligence experts to express their subjective assessment of the likelihood that this technology will have catastrophic consequences for humanity.
To give you an idea, P(doom) is like a kind of thermometer that measures the level of concern that leaders and great thinkers in the field of artificial intelligence have about the possible dangers that could arise with the advancement of this technology.
It is basically a number that goes from 0 to 100therefore, a higher Doom P, such as 80, means you are a doomer —catastrophist—of AI, believing that a point of no return for security is being passed and sealing humanity’s destiny towards extinction. A lower rating, such as 5, means there is only a 5% chance of losing.
For example, Dario Amodei, CEO of the company Anthropic, places his P(doom) between 10 and 25. Lina Khan, chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission, places it at 15. These numbers are subjective and reflect the individual perception of each expert on the risk associated with this technology.
From 0 to 100: a number that marks the end of humanity due to AI
The history of P(doom) dates back to 2009, when Tim Tyler, a Boston programmer, coined the term in the online community LessWrong, a forum dedicated to the philosophical movement of Rationalism.
At that time, was something of a joke, an informal way of expressing the “probability of conviction” associated with artificial intelligence, without going into specific details about the exact timing or definition of that “sentence.” However, over time, this measure has evolved and become a recurring topic of discussion among artificial intelligence leaders.
Logically, and with the boom As this technology has experienced in recent years, its popularity has skyrocketed. Now, this indicator has become a common topic in technological meetings, forums and conferences in which everyone shows their opinion on the matter..
He New York Times writes: “It’s become a common icebreaker among San Francisco techies and an unavoidable part of AI. I’ve attended two tech events this year where a stranger asked me about my P(doom) so matter-of-factly as if he were asking for directions to the bathroom.”
The diversity of opinions on the value of P(doom) has led to tensions in the industry and influenced important decisions, such as that recent soap opera regarding the firing of Sam Altman, co-founder and CEO of OpenAI.
This, added to the new artificial intelligence law of the European Union, are clear examples of how opinions about P(doom) are affecting the development and regulation of the technology. These events make it very clear how difficult it is to find a balance between driving technological progress and ensuring safety and ethics in the development of artificial intelligence.
And you, if they asked you what would you say your P(doom) is? Would you say a high number showing your conviction that AI is driving humanity to extinction? Or would you be more cautious and say a figure in between or even close to zero?
