Speculation has been circulating for months regarding a possible acquisition of Vodafone Italia by another operator, and the finger had been pointed at Iliad several times, but in a press note issued today it is Vodafone itself that indicates who its favorite: Swisscom AG. In fact, let’s immediately see what the red operator says about it, then we’ll comment on it.
Vodafone Group Plc (“Vodafone”) takes note of recent media speculation and confirms that it is in exclusive discussions with Swisscom AG (“Swisscom”) regarding a potential sale of Vodafone Italia to Swisscom, for a cash consideration.
Subject to a binding contractual agreement for the transaction, the parties have agreed that Swisscom would acquire Vodafone Italia for an enterprise value of €8 billion on a cash and debt free basis and subject to customary adjustments upon closing of the transaction. The enterprise value represents a multiple of approximately 26x on the consensus for the FY24 OpFCF and of approximately 7.6x on the consensus for the FY24 Adjusted EBITDAaL[1].
Vodafone has been in discussions with various parties to explore market consolidation options in Italy and believes that this potential transaction offers the best combination of value creation, upfront payment of cash consideration and transaction certainty for Vodafone shareholders.
There is no certainty that a settlement will be agreed. If necessary, a further announcement will be made when appropriate.
The statement is clear: Vodafone believes that Swisscom’s proposal is the best in every sensebut that doesn’t mean it exists certainty that the agreement goes through. But why issue such a note then?
There can be many hypotheses, and they are all valid. In the meantime, it is a way of putting down in black and white how much Vodafone Italia itself thinks it is worth, so that any other interested parties could play the game relaunch. On the other hand it could also be a way to force your hand to Swisscom, given that the economic details are now officially in the public domain.
However, we will give you a couple of other names that are worth mentioning: Fastweb and Iliad. The first is the Italian affiliate of Swisscom, and the second, as already mentioned, has long been interested in Vodafone. Therefore, going back to one of the previous rumors on the matter, Fastweb would keep Vodafone’s infrastructure, and then resell the consumer division to Iliad. It seemed like a nice speculation at the time, but considering how the pieces are now aligning, there could be more to the smoke.
In short, it seems clear that we are moving towards final stages of what is one of the most remote-controlled acquisitions in history, all that remains is to write the final chapter, and then to understand what consequences all this will have on the Vodafone customers and on the world of Italian telephony in general, given that the red operator is one of the player most important.
